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Watchdog· Research and Data

Headwaters Economics

“Improve community development and land management decisions in the West.”

Home groundBozeman, MT
Founded2005
KindWatchdog 501(c)(3)
Led byPatricia Hernandez

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The work

What they do

Independent research organization providing economic analysis of public lands issues. Data and tools on wildfire, recreation economics, and public lands values.

Every year they sign one sentence and file it with the federal government: “HEADWATERS ECONOMICS, INC. IS AN INDEPENDENT, NONPROFIT RESEARCH GROUP. OUR MISSION IS TO IMPROVE COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AND LAND MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.”

Where the money went, FY2025

The work, and what it cost

Reading every lease sale

$2.8M

Headwaters Economics conducts independent research, develops practical tools, and works directly with communities to advance data-driven solutions for economic resilience and risk reduction.

Including $10,000 granted onward, most of it $10,000 to City Of Miles City.

Read it as they filed it
Headwaters Economics conducts independent research, develops practical tools, and works directly with communities to advance data-driven solutions for economic resilience and risk reduction. In 2025, our team delivered more than 65 briefings and presentations to elected officials, agencies, and community leaders, directly reaching more than 6,000 people. Our research was featured in more than 2,100 media stories and disseminated through dozens of original reports, peer-reviewed publications, interactive data tools, podcasts, and newsletters. See more at www.headwaterseconomics.org. Providing Economic Insights for Stronger CommunitiesClear, accessible economic data helps local leaders make better decisions. In 2025, we:Updated and maintained the Economic Profile System (EPS), a free tool delivering customized economic and demographic reports for communities, counties, Tribal areas, states, and regions used by planners, agencies, and local governments nationwide.Enhanced the Rural Capacity Map, an interactive tool identifying where staffing and expertise gaps limit communities' ability to pursue infrastructure and risk-reduction projects, and published peer-reviewed research on its utility for improving access to grants.Published a report identifying concrete strategies for rural communities to secure local benefits from large-scale development projects.Published a synthesis documenting how Montana Community Foundation used data to expand outreach to rural and Tribal communities.Strengthening the Outdoor Recreation Economy & Public LandsOutdoor recreation and public lands are significant economic drivers in communities across the West and beyond. In 2025, we:Delivered localized economic analyses and recommendations for economic development and outdoor recreation projects in Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, and Vermont.Published a report examining how wildfire risk and development constraints will limit housing options on public lands.Updated two widely used data visualizations illustrating visitation trends and economic contributions of national parks and outdoor recreation at the state level.Maintained three web-based data tools used by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Forest Service to support land management, planning, and community engagement.Reducing Risk and Increasing Community StabilityAs disasters grow more frequently and costly, communities need rigorous, independent analysis to make informed decisions. In 2025, we:Provided technical assistance to 40 communities in 14 states to support wildfire and flood risk-reduction.Published a report finding that more than 1,100 communities across the U.S. face wildfire risk comparable to recent urban disasters, equipping planners and policymakers with data to prioritize action.Published a peer-reviewed journal article and companion report documenting how wildfire insurance market disruptions cascade into local and state budget pressures research informing legislative and regulatory discussions.Published analyses showing that building wildfire-resistant structures after disasters could save billions of dollars, and that next-generation wildfire risk models must account for the built environment.Released a report demonstrating that reclaiming abandoned mines can reduce harmful and costly flood disasters, providing a concrete strategy for community protection.Published findings that states must modernize stream crossing standards to protect communities from flooding, and a separate report on wildfire strategies for historic buildings.Co-hosted a Tribal Emergency Manager Summit convening leaders from a five-state region to strengthen cross-jurisdictional coordination.Conducted an independent evaluation of the USDA Forest Service's Community Wildfire Defense Grants (CWDG), assessing its effectiveness in reaching high-need communities.Maintained and expanded widely used public data tools, including Wildfire Risk to Communities (in partnership with the U.S. Forest Service), Neighborhoods at Risk, grant funding dashboards for CWDG and Slip-On Tanker programs, and data visualizations tracking wildfire structure losses and ignition causes.

IRS Form 990 Part III, fiscal year 2025, signed under penalty of perjury.

Follow the dollar

90 cents of every dollar goes to the work

90¢
90¢ the work9¢ keeping the lights on1¢ finding the next member

That ratio is a good sign, not a scorecard. Plenty of great groups run leaner and lumpier. What matters is the extremes, and Headwaters Economics is nowhere near one.

Backed on the record by Wilburforce Foundation, William & Flora Hewlett Foundation and Kendeda Fund, latest filing FY24.

$2,782,257 programs, $277,565 management, $15,274 fundraising. Form 990, FY2025.

The people

Who does the work

15paid staff
9board members
21years on the ground
Patricia HernandezExecutive DirectorSigned the 2026 federal filing as Executive Director

Succeeds Carmen Mcspadden in the officer table.

Kelly PohlAssoc. DirectorComp $133,642, FY2025
Nathan KommersMedia RelationsComp $121,812, FY2025

Honesty note: leadership comes from each year’s federal filing, so it can run a year behind. This one caught a changing of the guard in the act: the FY2025 officer table lists Carmen Mcspadden, the return itself is signed by Patricia Hernandez. Orgs that claim their page can update it same-day. Work at Headwaters Economics? Claim this page.

The filings

14 years of filings

14 years of filings

Total revenue by fiscal year, as filed. Point at the line for any year.

$2M$3.1M FY2520112025
Total revenue by fiscal year
YearRevenue
2011$896,284
2012$1,096,373
2013$1,130,360
2014$1,623,597
2015$1,663,872
2016$1,962,073
2017$2,344,674
2018$2,414,936
2019$2,661,663
2020$2,461,809
2021$3,423,228
2022$2,599,465
2023$3,166,391
2025$3,143,592

From $896K in 2011 to $3.1M in FY25, across 14 public filings.

Stand with Headwaters Economics

21 years on the ground, 90 cents of every dollar on the line. That is who is holding it. There is room for one more.

Sources and methodFinancials, headcounts, and program text: IRS Form 990, FY2025 and 13 prior filings via ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer, EIN 74-3171967. Leadership and compensation: Form 990 Part VII and the return’s signature block, FY2025 filing. Grantees: Schedule I, same filing. Funders: the funders’ own returns (Schedule I and 990-PF Part XV) via ProPublica, names and years only. Org-reported figures are always labeled. Data verified as of 2026-09-23. Nothing on this page is pay-to-play.