Testing the agency’s case

What the agency argues, and whether its own record backs it

2

Hold up

6

Not fully backed

2

Never analyzed

• AuthorityNot fully backedThe project is exempt from Survey and Manage pre-disturbance surveys because it proposes only young-stand thinning and riparian and stream improvement.

  The court's exemption covers thinning in stands younger than 80 years and certain riparian and stream improvement projects. These stands are 42 to 79 years old, so the thinning fits, and the document treats temporary roads, road work and quarry use as connected actions of the thinning. But the project includes about 21 miles of temporary roads, two quarry expansions totaling 1.83 acres with clearing and grubbing, and possible road re-alignment. The document doesn't explain why those fall within the exemption.

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  The agency says

  “As this project proposes only these activities, it is exempted from the Survey and Manage standards and guidelines.”

  Survey and Manage

  Elsewhere in the same document

  “Expansion is being proposed in two quarries with the expansions totaling 1.83 acres.”

  Road Maintenance and Reconstruction

  “Construction of approximately 21 miles of new temporary spur roads would be required to access timber harvest units.”

  Temporary Road Construction

  The law

  “Resource plans and permits, contracts, and other instruments for the use and occupancy of National Forest System lands shall be consistent with the land management plans.” National Forest Management Act, 16 U.S.C. 1604(i) ↗

• AlternativesNot fully backedThe agency rejected an alternative with no riparian harvest partly because thinning would reduce the elevated risk of future disturbance in overstocked riparian stands.

  The document says untreated riparian stands would face a growing risk of loss to fire, insects and disease, which spread more easily through dense, uniform stands. It says thinning lowers canopy bulk density, raises canopy base height and grows thicker-barked trees over the medium term of 15 to 30 years (Agee and Skinner 2005; Dunn and Bailey 2016). Appendix C says thinning and fuels work would help protect streams from high-severity fire. But the agency's own modeling found mostly low to moderate fire behavior before treatment and minimal effect from thinning, with 1% of units showing passive crown fire both before and after. Harvest also raises surface fuels for 1 to 5 years until those fuels are treated, and the document gives no insect or disease data.

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  The agency says

  “Recent wildfires have substantially altered conditions within Riparian Reserves throughout the project area, however many Riparian Reserve stands proposed for treatment are still overstocked, homogenous, and would benefit from treatment to reduce elevated risk for future disturbance.”

  Alternative that Does Not Allow Harvest in Riparian Reserves

  Elsewhere in the same document

  “This indicates that commercial thinning would have minimal effect on fire behavior in the stands within the project area, under the weather conditions that were modeled seen in Table 5.”

  How would commercial thinning harvest influence fire behavior in stands?

  “The result of modeling done in IFTDSS shows 1% of the proposed commercial thinning units could have passive crown fire both pre and post treatment, as seen in Figure 3.”

  How would commercial thinning harvest influence fire behavior in stands?

  The law

  “consistent with the provisions of this chapter, study, develop, and describe technically and economically feasible alternatives;” National Environmental Policy Act, 42 U.S.C. 4332(2)(F) ↗

• EffectsNot fully backedSediment from wet-weather log haul would harm streams only in the short term and poses no significant long-term risk once design features are applied.

  The document says maintaining roads before haul, surfacing them with high-quality rock and adding cross drains near streams would reduce fine sediment (Luce and Danehy 2022). It says haul would stop when sediment is seen moving into ditches or streams. It also argues that a maintained road system lowers the risk of large road failures compared with taking no action. But it gives no sediment estimates and relies on professional experience with design features. It calls greater fine sediment delivery from road work probable. Most of the haul route is proposed for year-round haul, and the same routes would be used every year over the life of the project. It says sediment may stay in a stream reach for multiple years, and it rates spring Chinook salmon as likely to be adversely affected.

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  The agency says

  “In summary, wet-weather haul can affect water quality and aquatic resources in the short-term by increasing sediment delivery to streams. However, it is unlikely to pose a significant risk over the long-term with proper administration of PDFs and BMPs.”

  Effects of Sedimentation Associated with Log haul

  Elsewhere in the same document

  “It is probable that the proposed road maintenance and reconstruction, especially on freshly constructed and maintained aggregate surfaced roads, would result in greater amounts of fine sediment delivery to the stream network.”

  Effects of sedimentation from road reconstruction and maintenance

  “Many of the same haul routes will be used annually and by multiple timber purchasers over the life of the project.”

  Spatial and Temporal Bounds of Analysis

  The law

  “An agency shall issue an environmental impact statement with respect to a proposed agency action requiring an environmental document that has a reasonably foreseeable significant effect on the quality of the human environment.” National Environmental Policy Act, 42 U.S.C. 4336(b)(1) ↗

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  • EffectsNot fully backedSurveys before and during logging would keep the project from causing incidental take of northern spotted owls.

    Design features require protocol surveys before and during implementation. They drop or modify downgrade thinning in occupied territories, keep thinning out of occupied nest patches and all known Late-Successional Reserve nest patches, and require a new review if surveys find activity centers that have moved or are new. The document ties this to the 2023 programmatic biological assessment and Biological Opinion. But its own methodology says substantial thinning that maintains but degrades foraging habitat in a core area below 50% suitable can impair a territory, and 10 Late-Successional Reserve stands overlap impaired core areas. The design feature that drops thinning in occupied, impaired territories covers only removing or downgrading habitat. The document doesn't say what happens in those 10 stands if owls are found.

    The agency’s words, the record +Hide the words

    The agency says

    “Because surveys would be performed to ensure occupied territories and nest patches are not impaired, there should be no incidental take of northern spotted owls from the proposed action.”

    How would loss of canopy cover from vegetation management impact northern spotted owl or their habitat?

    Elsewhere in the same document

    “Impairment of territories can also occur from thinning that reduces cover, snags, and down logs in nest patches and from substantial thinning that maintains but degrades foraging habitat in a core area below the 50% suitable threshold level.”

    Methodology

    “Within the LSR, 10 stands overlap impaired core areas that are proposed to be thinned to maintain canopy cover at levels greater than 60%.”

    Table 12

  • EffectsNot fully backedNo-harvest buffers would protect stream shade, so the project wouldn't worsen temperatures in streams already impaired for temperature.

    Appendix C says the no-harvest buffers would maintain the primary and secondary shade zones and that temperature effects would be negligible. Buffers run 30 to 120 feet depending on stream class. Outer reserves keep at least 40% canopy cover and 60 trees per acre, gaps stay more than 172 feet from streams, and fall-and-leave areas keep 70% canopy cover. The Forest says it will follow the 2008 Willamette Basin Water Quality Restoration Plan and the 2012 Northwest Forest Plan temperature strategies until its new plan is finished. But the text has no shade or temperature analysis for Fall Creek, Hehe Creek or Portland Creek, all listed as temperature impaired. Thinning is also allowed between the buffers and 172 feet, the zone the document treats as secondary shade.

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    The agency says

    “Primary stream shade zones, wood recruitment, and sediment buffering functions within stands would be protected by no-harvest buffers.”

    Commercial Thinning Harvest and Connected Activities

    Elsewhere in the same document

    “All of these water bodies are listed for year-round temperature impairment and impaired fish and aquatic life beneficial uses (ODEQ Integrated Report, 2022).”

    Clean Water Act

    “Returning adult salmon rely on deep cool pools along the Fall Creek mainstem for pre-spawn staging and for survival during warm summer months.”

    Status of Fisheries Resources

    The law

    “An agency shall issue an environmental impact statement with respect to a proposed agency action requiring an environmental document that has a reasonably foreseeable significant effect on the quality of the human environment.” National Environmental Policy Act, 42 U.S.C. 4336(b)(1) ↗

  • EconomicsNot fully backedThe 190 million board feet would equal about 19% of annual local mill capacity.

    The arithmetic works: 190 divided by the 1,000 million board feet working capacity is 19%, and about 11 jobs per million board feet gives about 2,090 jobs. The 1,000 figure is the agency's working estimate. It's based on about 1,400 million board feet of capacity in 2008 (Gale et al. 2012), and the document notes that no updated capacity report exists. Readers should know that 190 million board feet is the whole project's volume, harvested over about a decade, so its share of any single year's capacity would be smaller.

    The agency’s words, the record +Hide the words

    The agency says

    “The 190 MMBF represents about 19% of annual local mill capacity and provides raw material that supports local jobs while reducing reliance on imported logs and associated costs.”

    How would the timber volume generated by the proposed action contribute to the local economy?

    Elsewhere in the same document

    “Because this volume could be sold over roughly five years and harvested three to five years later, the economic contribution could extend over about a decade.”

    How would the timber volume generated by the proposed action contribute to the local economy?

    “For this analysis, a working capacity estimate of 1,000 MMBF is used to gauge how the proposed action contributes to local market demand.”

    Potentially Affected Environment